Why do firms choose acqui-hires, acquisitions primarily to obtain a target’s team, when they could hire the workers directly instead? I argue that preserving gains from team complementarity that direct hiring would leave unrealized can justify the additional acquisition cost. I develop a novel deal-level measure identifying 12,271 acqui-hires and document that they keep target teams more intact and produce more inventions inside the acquirer than direct hiring of comparable teams. COVID-19 disruptions to work requiring in-person coordination reduce the acqui-hire advantage in joint invention and shift firms toward direct hiring, providing causal evidence for this explanation. However, acqui-hires may reduce innovation diffusion by redirecting the team’s inventions toward the acquirer’s technology, as patents closer to that technology receive fewer citations from other firms. To evaluate the net effect on aggregate innovation, I estimate a structural model and find that an acqui-hire ban would shift firms toward partial-team hiring, reducing invention through lost team complementarity. Merger review should therefore recognize that restricting acqui-hires can backfire, reducing both innovation production and diffusion despite the benefit of preserving startups’ independent innovation direction.
China’s technological progress in recent decades has been viewed with admiration, alarm, and (in some cases) doubt. To better understand the Chinese innovation ecosystem, we compile a dataset of almost 14 million domestic Chinese patent publications. We focus on the subset of critical technologies identified by the U.S. Department of Defense. Several surprising patterns emerge from the data: Chinese patenting is strongly associated with other measures of innovative progress; patents are not concentrated in corporate giants such as Huawei; universities have played a key role in innovation, much greater than state-owned enterprises or government-owned facilities; and fewer than one in ten Chinese critical technology patents involves an inventor with U.S. experience or training. Finally, using four text-based measures of patent quality, we show that the rise of Chinese patenting in critical technologies has not been associated with a decline in quality relative to the U.S. awards.
We study how an acquirer’s public visibility affects antitrust enforcement in mergers and its real economic consequences. Using a novel dataset linking FTC and DOJ inspection outcomes to news coverage of merger parties, we find that a 10 percent increase in the acquirer’s share of industry news coverage raises the likelihood of being flagged by 1.5 to 3 percent. We establish causality using geographical proximity to media outlets as an exogenous source of variation in news coverage. We interpret these results through a political-accountability framework: higher visibility raises the reputational stakes of enforcement, leading regulators to challenge more visible acquirers. Consistent with this accountability framework, the visibility gradient strengthens during congressional appropriations hearings and disappears in lame-duck periods. It is also substantially stronger in consumer-facing industries, where accountability pressures are highest. Finally, visibility-driven scrutiny has real effects: overlooked low-visibility deals gain market power, while flagged acquirers expand inefficiently and face a higher financial burden. Our results highlight how public salience distorts merger review and generates persistent post-merger inefficiencies.
(With Tianshu Lyu), November 2025
Best Paper Award, USC Marshall PhD Conference in Finance
Presentations: SITE (2025), SFS Cavalcade NA (2025), EFA (2025), MFA (2025), AFA (2025), FMA (2024), NFA PhD Session (2024), USC Marshall PhD Conference (2024)
We show that investors misreact to technological innovations based on their novelty, and that these misreactions distort firms’ subsequent innovation directions. First, using textual measures of novelty, we find that investors underreact to the issuance of novel innovations but overreact to non-novel ones. Novel patent issuance predicts lower risk and positive earnings forecast errors, consistent with mispricing rather than compensation for risk. A model where boundedly-rational investors are uncertain about the true novelty of a patent at issuance explains the empirical patterns well. Second, using sensational news as an exogenous shock to misreaction, we present causal evidence that, after disappointing returns to patent news, firms follow up less on current technologies, and novel firms shift future innovations from novelty-seeking to copycatting when exploring new areas. The findings highlight that investors’ misreactions to patent novelty steer innovation away from higher-valued, groundbreaking research.
(With Stephen Haber, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Amit Seru), October 2026, Draft Coming Soon
How does knowledge embodied in people spread, and when does that knowledge become productive? We show that social interaction expands local inventive capacity, while the extent of the market governs whether firms can implement new ideas at scale. Nineteenth-century U.S. railroad expansion altered both inventor interaction and market reach, allowing us to study both forces. Using linked inventor histories, patents, and manufacturing censuses, we find that railroad connectivity increases patenting, breakthrough patenting, and technological breadth among pre-existing local inventors. We provide causal evidence that learning through interaction with experienced migrant inventors contributes to the railroad-induced expansion of local inventive activity. Changes in local inventive capacity have larger effects on manufacturing output and other production margins where financial depth and prior manufacturing orientation are greater. We develop and calibrate a spatial growth model that integrates inventor mobility, knowledge diffusion, and idea implementation in equilibrium. Together, our results suggest that social interaction enables innovation to diffuse, while the extent of the market governs whether new ideas are implemented at scale, reorganize production, and ultimately expand the market through specialization and growth.
(With Josh Lerner, Namrata Narain, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Amit Seru), October 2026, Draft Coming Soon
Innovation requires combining scientific knowledge with the capabilities needed to apply it. Decentralized markets may leave productive opportunities unrealized. Government coordination can overcome this market failure, but limited information and distorted incentives can lead to misallocations. We study this tradeoff using the staggered designation of China’s Collaborative Innovation Centers, which supported joint research among universities, firms, and research institutes. State coordination raised university patenting by 68 percent and increased patent importance. More firms began co-patenting with universities, while existing partners produced more important joint patents. Because returns vary across opportunities, aggregate gains also depend on allocation. We find substantial misallocation toward politically connected firms relative to the patent-return ranking. To evaluate the consequences for U.S. science policy, we use U.S. patent and publication data to predict where state coordination could help firms make productive use of each university’s research and how much patenting those uses would generate. Applying the China estimates of coordination’s effects on new and existing uses, our model identifies the universities where support would most increase firms’ patenting using university knowledge. In short, state coordination can complement decentralized markets, but its value depends on overcoming market failure while limiting government coordination failures.
(With Susan Cherry, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru), Draft Coming Soon
We study how and why states regulate nonbank lenders and which objectives rationalize the observed allocation of enforcement. We construct the first comprehensive panel of state enforcement actions against nonbank lenders, covering 46 states from 2009 to 2024, and document substantial differences in enforcement intensity and composition across states. In our framework, administrative oversight screens and monitors lenders but imposes broad compliance costs that can restrict credit. Conduct enforcement targets misconduct but depends on outside signals. A social planner balances the gains from reducing borrower harm against compliance costs and reduced credit access. Agencies that also supervise state-chartered banks may place excess weight on bank profits and favor oversight that raises nonbank rivals’ costs. The empirical patterns are consistent with these two motives. Consumer complaints predict subsequent conduct enforcement but not administrative oversight. Using lobbying records from 20 states, we find that state-bank lobbying predicts greater nonbank enforcement, particularly in mortgage lending, and a shift toward administrative actions. National-bank lobbying exhibits neither pattern. Separating state-bank supervision from nonbank regulation could limit incumbent-bank influence over enforcement and better align regulatory decisions with borrower protection and credit access.